Zadnje čase precej bolj spremljam, kaj se dogaja z IPv4 naslovnim prostorom. Zanimivo, kako se predikcije in napovedi, kdaj nam ga bo zmanjkalo spreminjajo – kakšen dan se odšteje samo en dan, kdaj pa kar 10 dni skupaj – včeraj je bila napoved 357 dni, danes pa že 347…

Zgleda, da se je res začel “final rush”. Te napovedi se generirajo iz “nearly-live” podatkov iz RiR allocation baz in zgleda, da so RiR-i konec zadnjega tedna razdelili enormno število IPv4 naslovov, ali pa je bil en velik kos “pogače” dodeljen kakšnemu velikemu operaterju.

Jan Žorž

P.S: Na to temo se je po e-mailu oglasil tudi Geoff Huston, ki je zapisal sledeče:

There are a lot of details that are folded into modelling of real world systems, but ultimately they are just models and reality often has its own trajectory.

It is useful to bear in mind that less that 1% of all individual address allocations across the world consume 50% of IPv4 addresses. And in recent times less than 20 providers have consumed about 25% of all IPv4 addresses. In other words the actions of a very small number of very large scale providers has a much greater impact on address consumption than the actions of a large number of smaller providers. While statistical models are good when looking at anticipated behaviour of large populations, they are pretty hopeless when looking at the behaviour of much smaller populations. Individuals do not behave in good statistical order!

Given that the entire address consumption model is so heavily influenced by the actions of a few, it could be that the address pool is exhausted in the coming weeks. It is also possible that the remaining pool of addresses will last for a further 18 months. All the models can do is that given a particular perspective on the consumption behaviour of the recent past, the model attempts to provide a projection into the future.

Frankly, anyone who thinks that the time to deploy IPv6 is still some months or even years away is playing a rather silly game. The topic of interest is not really about various models of exhaustion – the topic of concern to all of us is why out of all the ISPs in the region, the number who have integrated IPv6 into all their services is still frighteningly small.

Geoff

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